{"id":877,"date":"2012-03-01T18:44:24","date_gmt":"2012-03-01T17:44:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lornemitchell.com\/blog\/?p=877"},"modified":"2012-03-02T19:09:21","modified_gmt":"2012-03-02T18:09:21","slug":"everything-will-be-all-right-in-the-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=877","title":{"rendered":"Everything will be All Right in the End&#8230;.."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Susie, my wife, booked us to go and see a film on Sunday evening &#8211; &#8220;The best exotic Marigold Hotel&#8221;. \u00a0 A very funny film and well worth watching! \u00a0You can&#8217;t leave the film and not remember the line that one of the leading characters, Sonny, keeps saying throughout the film:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #00ff00;\">&#8220;Everything will be all right in the end; if it&#8217;s not alright then it&#8217;s not the end.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Apparently this is a quote of the Brazilian writer Fernando Sabino: <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">&#8220;No fim tudo d\u00e1 certo, e se n\u00e3o deu certo \u00e9 porque ainda n\u00e3o chegou ao fim&#8221;<\/span> &#8211; but I am not sure if he really was the originator or not. \u00a0Doesn&#8217;t matter. \u00a0It is a great quote. \u00a0Actually, Susie has often quoted the first bit at me and it is strange, but somehow, everything always does work out in the end&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, it got me thinking back to the Thursday Thoughts theme two weeks ago about optimism &#8211; and the <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">Optimist&#8217;s Creed<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg\"><img data-attachment-id=\"884\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?attachment_id=884\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?fit=500%2C375\" data-orig-size=\"500,375\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"optimism\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?fit=300%2C225\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?fit=500%2C375\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-884\" title=\"optimism\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?resize=500%2C375\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?w=500 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/03\/optimism.jpg?resize=300%2C225 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And so it was that last night I got to Chapter 24 in Daniel Kahneman&#8217;s Book <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">&#8220;Thinking, fast and slow&#8221;<\/span> (which I started to review last week) only to find that \u00a0this chapter &#8211; entitled <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">&#8220;The Engine of Capitalism&#8221;<\/span> is all about optimism too! \u00a0Or perhaps, more accurately, over-optimism. \u00a0Coincidence or what?<\/p>\n<p>Kahneman summarises in a section entitled <span style=\"color: #00ff00;\"><strong>&#8220;<\/strong>COMPETITION NEGLECT<strong>&#8220;<\/strong><\/span>:<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">&#8220;It is tempting to explain entrepreneurial optimism by wishful thinking, but emotion is only part of the story. \u00a0Cognitive biases play an important role, notably the System 1 WYSIATI (What you see is all there is):<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">We focus on our goal, anchor on our plan, and neglect relevant base rates, exposing ourselves to the planning fallacy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">We focus on what we want to do and can do, neglecting the plans and skills of others<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">Both in explaining the past and in predicting the future, we focus on the causal role of skill and neglect the role of luck. \u00a0we are therefore prone to an <strong><em>illusion of control<\/em><\/strong>.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">We focus on what we know and neglect what we do not know, which makes us overly confident in our beliefs.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>What was more extraordinary is that as I was reading this, a good friend and follower of this stream, David Brunnen wrote to me and \u00a0sent me this link: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.innovationpolicy.org\/my-new-book-title-eh-the-future-will-be-okay\">http:\/\/www.innovationpolicy.org\/my-new-book-title-eh-the-future-will-be-okay<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0with the \u00a0comment: <span style=\"color: #ff9900;\">&#8220;Worth a read I think \u2013 partly because of his realistic assessment of US R&amp;D funding and partly because Rob gets close to the tendency that has long-plagued the ICT world \u2013 eternal optimism and hype.&#8221;\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Even more coincidence. \u00a0Anyone else thinking about optimism, over-optimism and the way we think about the future? \u00a0Please join in the flow by commenting below!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Susie, my wife, booked us to go and see a film on Sunday evening &#8211; &#8220;The best exotic Marigold Hotel&#8221;. \u00a0 A very funny film and well worth watching! \u00a0You can&#8217;t leave the film and not remember the line that one of the leading characters, Sonny, keeps saying throughout the film: &#8220;Everything will be all &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=877\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Everything will be All Right in the End&#8230;..&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[76,40,37,32,50,34,86,89,51,90,60,1],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p6DQGK-e9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":786,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=786","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":0},"title":"Step Into the River!","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"15\/12\/2011","format":false,"excerpt":"One of the great treats of Thursday (in addition, of course, to Thursday Thoughts) is Melvyn Bragg's \"In Our Time\" broadcast twice each Thursday on Radio 4. Last week's programme (HERE) was about Heraclytus - one of the greatest pre-Socratic philosophers which is well worth listening to if you missed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Big Ideas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Big Ideas","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=42"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/12\/RiverWampoolSimonLedinghamSep2004.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":410,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=410","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":1},"title":"Hereafter and History Homework","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"06\/02\/2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Last night I went to see the Clint Eastwood directed movie - Hereafter. \u00a0I thoroughly enjoyed it as I had a near-death experience in the 1980s - and it sang true to many of the things that happened to me at the time - but which I have not really\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Big Ideas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Big Ideas","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=42"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":587,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=587","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":2},"title":"Reasons for Encouragement: Keeping the World View","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"27\/07\/2011","format":false,"excerpt":"In the week that the US space shuttle programme came to an end, the BBC put a cut-down and edited version of the film \"Round the world in 90 minutes. You can watch the older version on YouTube in five fifteen minute cuts: Let's hope that the planetary consciousness that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Big Ideas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Big Ideas","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=42"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1162,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=1162","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":3},"title":"Powerful Forces Are At Work!","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"13\/12\/2012","format":false,"excerpt":"My father used to have a phrase that he used from time to time when something inexplicable happened.\u00a0 \"Powerful Forces are at Work\" he would say. \u00a0In the past week or so, I have had a very strong feeling that somehow the universe is reconfiguring itself and that powerful forces\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Big Ideas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Big Ideas","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=42"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/transitions-wordle.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/transitions-wordle.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/transitions-wordle.png?resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":1460,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=1460","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":4},"title":"Streep, Einstein and Mouse","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"16\/11\/2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I was recently sent this quote: \u201cI no longer have patience for certain things, not because I\u2019ve become arrogant, but simply because I reached a point in my life where I do not want to waste more time with what displeases me or hurts me. I have no patience for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Attention&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Attention","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=78"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1666,"url":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?p=1666","url_meta":{"origin":877,"position":5},"title":"The Single Most Important Ingredient for a Great Product Launch","author":"Lorne Mitchell","date":"24\/09\/2015","format":false,"excerpt":"This week's \"Thursday Thoughts\" is one in a series on Product Launches - a subject that I find\u00a0fascinating\u00a0and so important to\u00a0growing a successful\u00a0business. So, what is the single most important ingredient of a great product launch? \u00a0We need\u00a0to look no further than the film (or movie) industry - and to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Art&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Art","link":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/?cat=69"},"img":{"alt_text":"Our Story","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.lornemitchell.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/09\/Our-Story-300x172.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=877"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":885,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/877\/revisions\/885"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.lornemitchell.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}